2012, end of the world

Many assertions about the year 2012 form part of a non-codified collection of New Age beliefs about ancient Maya wisdom and spirituality.^[1][2][3] Archaeoastronomer Anthony Aveni says that while the idea of “balancing the cosmos” was prominent in ancient Maya literature, the 2012 phenomenon does not draw from those traditions. Instead, it is bound up with American concepts such as the New Age movement, millenarianism, and the belief in secret knowledge from distant times and places.^[4] Established themes found in 2012 literature include “suspicion towards mainstream Western culture,” the idea of spiritual evolution, and the possibility of leading the world into the New Age by individual example or by a group’s joined consciousness. The general intent of this literature is not to warn of impending doom but “to foster counter-cultural sympathies and eventually socio-political and ‘spiritual’ activism”.^[5] Aveni, who has studied New Age and SETI communities, describes 2012 narratives as the product of a “disconnected” society: “Unable to find spiritual answers to life’s big questions within ourselves, we turn outward to imagined entities that lie far off in space or time—entities that just might be in possession of superior knowledge.”^[6]

Citations

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LONDON and NEW YORK, Dec. 14, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Equities and commodities are two asset classes likely to do better over the full course of 2012 than they did in 2011, according to Jack Malvey, chief global market strategist for BNY Mellon Asset Management. Malvey, who made the comments during his outlook conference call with clients and consultants, said he expects the strongest outperformance from the two asset classes to occur in the second half of the year as investors begin factoring in the resumption of economic growth in 2013 and 2014.

Malvey stressed that market behavior in 2012 should be viewed in the context of the continuing “great transition to a new conservative financial era.” This transition marks a reversal of the increased leverage by governments and individuals in developed markets that began in approximately 1970, rose to unsustainable levels, and ended with the great recession that began in 2007, he said.

However, he noted that a number of events could create opportunities despite the current issues surrounding the eurozone, the U.S. budget and elections, and generally more conservative expectations for world economic growth. “In less than a year, I expect the medium term economic fate of Europe will be defined and the U.S. election outcome will be known,” he added.

According to Malvey, equities could rise in the 10 to 15 percent range in 2012 as the probability of stronger economic growth becomes more apparent during 2012 and corporate earnings growth remains positive, although not advancing as quickly as in 2011. Other factors that could propel equity prices in 2012 would be merger and acquisition escalation, equity buybacks, dividend increases, and asset allocation shifts from bonds to equities.

“Investors are focusing more on what can go wrong instead of the potential upside,” Malvey said. “The last few years have been rough on equities. Folks are doing a lot of rear-view mirror gazing, looking to make same trades as in 2011, which may not be a good idea.”

Malvey noted the interest rates on bonds have been driven so low that dividend yields are now more attractive. “The fixed income asset class is not likely to be as generous to investors as in most years since 2000,” he noted. “The Global Aggregate bond index is likely to return someplace between a negative three percent and a positive three percent due to a combination of flat-to-slightly higher medium- and long-term government bond yields, bulging government bond supply, and concerns that monetary policy will become normalized.”

Commodities could gain 10 percent in 2012 on expectations of economic growth normalization in 2013 and beyond, and investors continue to turn to commodities as a hedge against possible currency weakness, inflation or deflation, and general uncertainty in the traditional financial markets, he said. Malvey excluded gold from the overall commodities group, saying this precious metal already has enjoyed major appreciation over the past several years. Instead, he said the commodities likely to outperform are more closely tied to the economic cycles, such as industrial metals like copper.

U.S. politics and the European sovereign debt crisis will continue to shape the course of markets through much of 2012, he said. However, I anticipate that these uncertainties will abate as the U.S. election in late 2012 is likely to determine future budget policies on dealing with the deficit, and Europe should be well along in resolving its sovereign and banking sector problems, Malvey concluded.

Notes to Editors:
BNY Mellon Asset Management is one of the world’s leading asset management organizations, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms and global distribution companies. Information about BNY Mellon Asset Management can be found at www.bnymellonam.com.

BNY Mellon is a global financial services company focused on helping clients manage and service their financial assets, operating in 36 countries and serving more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is a leading provider of financial services for institutions, corporations and high-net-worth individuals, offering superior investment management and investment services through a worldwide client-focused team. It has $25.9 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $1.2 trillion in assets under management, services $11.9 trillion in outstanding debt and processes global payments averaging $1.6 trillion per day. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon Asset Management at September 30, 2011. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorised. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Asset Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. A BNY Mellon Company(SM)

Temple of Inscriptions

Mayan inscriptions occasionally mention predicted future events or commemorations that would occur on dates far beyond the completion of the 13th b’ak’tun. Most of these are in the form of “distance dates”: Long Count dates given together with an additional number, known as a Distance Number, which when added together make a future date. On the west panel at the Temple of Inscriptions in Palenque, a section of text projects forward to the 80th 52-year Calendar Round from the coronation of the ruler K’inich Janaab’ Pakal. Pakal’s accession occurred on 9.9.2.4.8, equivalent to 27 July 615 AD in the proleptic Gregorian calendar. The inscription begins with Pakal’s birthdate of 9.8.9.13.0 (March 24, 603 AD Gregorian) and then adds the Distance Number 10.11.10.5.8 to it,^[1] arriving at a date of October 21, 4772 AD, more than 4,000 years after Pakal’s time.^[2][1][3]

Another example is Stele 1 at Coba, which gives a date of 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0, or twenty units above the b’ak’tun, placing it either 4.134105 × 10²⁸ (41 octillion) years in the future,^[4] or an equal distance in the past.^[5] This date is 3 quintillion times the age of the universe as determined by cosmologists.

Citations

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The Chilam Balam are a group of post-conquest Mayan prophetic histories transcribed in a modified form of the Spanish alphabet. Their authorship is ascribed to a chilam balam, or jaguar prophet.^[1] The Chilam Balam of Tizimin has been translated four times in the 20th century, with many disputes over the meaning of its passages. One passage in particular is relevant to the interpretation of the 13th b’ak’tun:

lic u tal oxlahun bak chem, ti u cenic u (tzan a cen/ba nacom)i (ciac/cha’) a ba yum(il/t)exe

Maud Worcester Makemson, an archaeoastronomer, believed that this line referred to the “tremendously important event of the arrival of 13.0.0.0.0 4 Ahau 3 Kankin in the not too distant future”,^[2] Her translation of the line, runs:

Presently B’ak’tun 13 shall come sailing, figuratively speaking, bringing the ornaments of which I have spoken from your ancestors.

Her version of the text continues, “Then the god will come to visit his little ones. Perhaps ‘After Death’ will be the subject of his discourse.” Makemson was still relying on her own dating of 13.0.0.0.0 to 1752 and therefore the “not too distant future” in her annotations meant a few years after the scribe in Tizimin recorded his Chilam Balam.^[3] The more recent translation of Munro S. Edmonson does not support this reading; he considers the Long Count almost entirely absent from the book, since the 360-day tun was supplanted in the 1750s by a 365-day Christian year, and a 24-round may system was being implemented.^[4] He translates the line as follows:

…like the coming of 13 sail-ships. When the captains dress themselves, your fathers will be taken.^[5]

Other Chilam Balam books contain references to the 13th b’ak’tun, but it is unclear if these are in the past or future; for example, oxhun bakam u katunil (thirteen bakam of k’atuns) in the Chilam Balam of Chumayel.^[6] Bolon Yokte’ K’uh appears in in the Chilam Balam of Chumayel to signify an apparent battle and victory over Spanish invaders.^[7]

Citations

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The Tortuguero site, which lies in southernmost Tabasco, Mexico, dates from the 7th century AD and consists of a series of inscriptions in honor of the contemporary ruler. One inscription, known as Tortuguero Monument 6, is generally agreed among Mayanists to refer to b’ak’tun 13. It has been partially defaced; Mark Van Stone has given the most complete translation:

Tzuhtz-(a)j-oom u(y)-uxlajuun pik

The Thirteenth [b'ak'tun] will end

(ta) Chan Ajaw ux(-te’) Uniiw.

(on) 4 Ajaw, the 3rd of Uniiw [3 K'ank'in].

Uht-oom Ek’-…

Black …[illegible]…will occur.

Y-em(al)…Bolon Yookte’ K’uh ta-chak-ma…

(It will be) the descent(?) of Bolon Yokte’ K’uh to the great (or “red”?)…[illegible]…^[1]

Very little is known about the god (or gods) Bolon Yokte’ K’uh.^[1] According to an article by Mayanists M. Eberl and C. Prager in British Anthropological Reports, his name is composed of the elements “nine”, ‘OK-te’ (the meaning of which is unknown), and “god”. Confusion in classical period inscriptions suggests that the name was already ancient and unfamiliar to contemporary scribes.^[2] He also appears in inscriptions from Palenque, Usumacinta, and La Mar as a god of war, conflict, and the underworld. In one stela he is portrayed with a rope tied around his neck, and in another with an incense bag, together signifying a sacrifice to end a period of time.^[3] Despite all this, Eberl & Prager believe that the reference to Bolon Yokte’ K’uh at Tortuguero is a positive one, because the fragmentary word translated above as “descent” seems to be the same one used during building dedications.^[4]

Citations

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httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5VXkzCC8kI

The present-day Maya, as a whole, do not attach much significance to b’ak’tun 13. Although the calendar round is still used by some Maya tribes in the Guatemalan highlands, the Long Count was employed exclusively by the classic Maya, and was only recently rediscovered by archaeologists.^[1] Mayan elder Apolinario Chile Pixtun and Mexican archaeologist Guillermo Bernal both note that “apocalypse” is a Western concept that has little or nothing to do with Mayan beliefs. Bernal believes that such ideas have been foisted on the Maya by Westerners because their own myths are “exhausted”.^[2][3] Archaeoastronomer Anthony Aveni says that while the idea of “balancing the cosmos” was prominent in ancient Maya literature, and some modern Maya affirm this idea of an age of coexistence, the 2012 phenomenon does not present this message in its original form. Instead, it is bound up with American traditions such as the New Age movement, millenarianism, and the belief in secret knowledge from distant times and places.^[4] Mayan archaeologist Jose Huchm has stated that “If I went to some Mayan-speaking communities and asked people what is going to happen in 2012, they wouldn’t have any idea. That the world is going to end? They wouldn’t believe you. We have real concerns these days, like rain”.^[2]

What significance the classic Maya gave the 13th b’ak’tun is uncertain. Most classic Maya inscriptions are strictly historical and do not make any prophetic declarations.^[5] Two items in the Maya historical corpus, however, may mention the end of the 13th b’ak’tun: Tortuguero Monument 6 and, possibly, the Chilam Balam.

Citations

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Chichen Itza Initial Series inscription. This date (glyphs A2, B2, …, A5) is 10.2.9.1.9 9 Muluk 7 Sak, equivalent to July 28, 878 (GMT Gregorian).

December 2012 marks the ending of the current b’ak’tun cycle of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, which was used in Central America prior to the arrival of Europeans. Though the Long Count was most likely invented by the Olmec,^[8] it has become closely associated with the Maya civilization, whose classic period lasted from 250 to 900 AD.^[9] The writing system of the classic Maya has been substantially deciphered, meaning that a corpus of their written and inscribed material has survived from before the European conquest.

The Long Count set its “zero date” at a point in the past marking the end of the previous world and the beginning of the current one, which corresponds to either 11 or 13 August 3114 BC in the Proleptic Gregorian calendar, depending on the formula used.^[10] Unlike the 52-year calendar round still used today among the Maya, the Long Count was linear, rather than cyclical, and kept time roughly in units of 20, so 20 days made a uinal, 18 uinals (360 days) made a tun, 20 tuns made a k’atun, and 20 k’atuns (144,000 days) made up a b’ak’tun. So, for example, the Mayan date of 8.3.2.10.15 represents 8 b’ak’tuns, 3 k’atuns, 2 tuns, 10 uinals and 15 days since creation. Many Mayan inscriptions have the count shifting to a higher order after 13 b’ak’tuns, or roughly 5,125 years.^[11][12] Today, the most widely accepted correlation of the end of the thirteenth b’ak’tun, or Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0, with the Western calendar is December 21, 2012,^[1] with December 23 remaining another option.

In 1957, Mayanist and astronomer Maud Worcester Makemson wrote that “the completion of a Great Period of 13 b’ak’tuns would have been of the utmost significance to the Maya”.^[13] In 1988, anthropologist Munro S. Edmonson added that “there appears to be a strong likelihood that the eral calendar, like the year calendar, was motivated by a long-range astronomical prediction, one that made a correct solsticial forecast 2,367 years into the future in 355 B.C.” (sic)[14] In 1966, Michael D. Coe more ambitiously asserted in The Maya that “there is a suggestion … that Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation on the final day of the thirteenth [b'ak'tun]. Thus … our present universe [would] be annihilated [in December 2012]^[a] when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion.”^[15]

Coe’s apocalyptic connotations were accepted by other scholars through the early 1990s.^[16] In contrast, later researchers said that, while the end of the 13th b’ak’tun would perhaps be a cause for celebration,^[3] it did not mark the end of the calendar.^[17] “There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012,” says Mayanist scholar Mark Van Stone, “The notion of a “Great Cycle” coming to an end is completely a modern invention.”^[18] In their seminal work of 1990, Maya scholars Linda Schele and David Freidel, who reference Edmonson, argue that the Maya “did not conceive this to be the end of creation, as many have suggested,”^[19] citing Mayan predictions of events to occur after the end of the 13th b’ak’tun. Stela 1 at Coba, for example, gives a date with twenty units above the b’ak’tun, placing it either 4.134105 × 10²⁸ years in the future,^[19] or an equal distance in the past.^[20] Either way, this date is 3 quintillion times the age of the universe, demonstrating that not all Mayans considered the 5,125-year cycle as the most important. In fact, many different Maya city-states employed the Long Count in different ways. At Palenque, evidence suggests that the priest timekeepers believed the cycle would end after 20 b’ak’tuns, rather than 13. A monument commemorating the ascension of king Pakal the Great connects his coronation with events as much as 4000 years after, indicating that those scribes did not believe the world would end on 13.0.0.0.0.^[21]

Citations

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A date inscription for the Mayan Long Count

The 2012 phenomenon comprises a range of eschatological beliefs that cataclysmic or transformative events will occur on December 21, 2012,^[1][2][3] which is said to be the end-date of a 5,125-year-long cycle in the Mayan Long Count calendar. Various astronomical alignments and numerological formulae related to this date have been proposed, but none have been accepted by mainstream scholarship.

A New Age interpretation of this transition posits that during this time, Earth and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation, and that 2012 may mark the beginning of a new era.^[4] Others suggest that the 2012 date marks the end of the world or a similar catastrophe. Scenarios posited for the end of the world include the Earth’s collision with a passing planet (often referred to as “Nibiru”) or black hole, or the arrival of the next solar maximum.

Scholars from various disciplines have dismissed the idea that a catastrophe will happen in 2012, stating that predictions of impending doom are not found in any of the existing classic Maya accounts. Mainstream Mayanist scholars state that the idea that the Long Count calendar “ends” in 2012 misrepresents Maya history.^[3][5] The modern Maya, on the whole, have not attached much significance to the date, and the classical sources on the subject are scarce and contradictory, suggesting that there was little if any universal agreement among them about what, if anything, the date might mean.^[6]

Astronomers and other scientists have rejected the apocalyptic forecasts, on the grounds that the anticipated events are precluded by astronomical observations, or are unsubstantiated by the predictions that have been generated from these findings.^[7] NASA has compared fears about 2012 to those about the Y2K bug in the late 1990s, suggesting that an adequate analysis should preclude fears of disaster.^[7]

Citations

Links

• 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won’t End?, NASA FAQs.
• List of links to articles about 2012 compiled by FAMSI (the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies, Inc)

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